《Multiple factors drive new changes in the chemical raw material market, and the pesticide sector may have new opportunities for growth》

04/23/2025 08:46:21

Recently, there have been frequent developments in the field of chemical raw materials, presenting a complex and full of opportunities in various aspects such as capacity construction, product price adjustment, and overseas market expansion. This series of changes not only reflects the internal structural adjustment of the industry, but also indicates the reshaping of the market supply and demand relationship, which has a profound impact on related enterprises and the entire chemical raw material industry ecosystem.
The construction of production capacity presents a new trend
In terms of capacity construction, the Chinese pesticide industry will be more cautious and rational in capacity investment in 2024. According to incomplete statistics from the World Agrochemical Network, the planned production capacity of pesticide raw materials decreased slightly that year, but still reached 2.2 million tons. There were 22 pesticide raw material products with a planned production capacity increase of more than 10000 tons. The investment and construction of popular bulk products such as glyphosate and propiconazole are still active, but the number of large-scale pesticide investment projects has decreased, and some enterprises' production capacity planning tends to be conservative. For example, due to stricter environmental policies in the eastern region, pesticide companies are gradually increasing their presence in other areas.
At the same time, the planned production capacity of newly patented pesticide raw materials continues to grow, and some patented products are also planned in advance by enterprises. In addition, more than 40 pesticide intermediates are planned to have a production capacity of over 10000 tons, providing key support for bulk pesticide raw materials such as Shuangcao, Jingcao, and propiconazole, ensuring the supply of raw materials. The construction project of Gansu Beida Biotechnology Co., Ltd.'s annual production line for 4600 tons of pesticide raw materials is steadily progressing. The registration, environmental impact assessment, and energy assessment procedures have been completed, and the construction of office buildings and factories is expected to be completed for trial production in July this year. The project plans to build one production line each with an annual production capacity of 4000 tons of benzofenapyr and 600 tons of benzamide. The annual production of 89500 tons of pesticide raw materials project signed between Yumen City and Taixing Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 1.18 billion yuan and covering an area of 610 acres, has completed company registration, park evaluation, and project filing, and is planned to start construction within the year.

Adjustment in product price fluctuation
From the perspective of product prices, since 2025, representative enterprises such as Taiyixin, Limin Shares, and Red Sun Shares have issued product price adjustment letters, which have attracted market attention to the trend of pesticide prices. According to analysis by Everbright Securities, the issuance of price adjustment letters by pesticide companies is the result of a combination of multiple factors. On the supply side, the global production capacity of key varieties such as Baijunqing is concentrated in Jiangsu, China. The National Development and Reform Commission's "double high" product catalog restricts the addition of new production capacity, resulting in insufficient supply elasticity. Taking Jiangsu Xinhe, in which Limin Holdings holds a stake, as an example, its Baijunqing production capacity accounts for 47% of the world's total, and its current inventory is at a historical low. On the demand side, pesticide products, as a rigid demand for crops, have obvious seasonality. According to the 2024 annual report of Yangnong Chemical, the peak season for pesticide formulation use is generally from March to September each year, and the peak season for the raw material market is earlier than that for the formulation market. During the strong demand for pesticides in spring, the prices of some pesticide raw materials have significantly rebounded. From a cost perspective, the significant increase in raw material prices, such as the rebound of glufosinate prices, has increased production costs.
Looking ahead to the future, pesticide prices may exhibit characteristics of "structural differentiation and central upward shift". The price elasticity of fungicides is relatively high due to the tight supply and demand balance of varieties such as Baijunqing and Daisen manganese zinc; Varieties such as avermectin and methomyl in insecticides benefit from the demand for pest control such as fall armyworm in grasslands, and prices are expected to continue to rise; The herbicide is affected by the overcapacity of glyphosate, and the short-term rebound space is limited. However, after the long-term industry clearance, it may usher in a turning point.
Progress has been made in expanding overseas markets
There have also been new breakthroughs in expanding overseas markets. On April 2nd, Adama announced its innovative authorized raw material Feralla ® Approved by the European Union. In March 2025, the EU Standing Committee on Plants, Animals, Food and Feed approved the confirmation of Feralla ® As a low-risk active ingredient, it marks significant progress in the EU market launch process for this raw material. Expected to be the first based on Feralla ® The product will be launched in the UK in the second half of 2025 and subsequently in other European countries. Compared with existing iron phosphate products, Feralla ® It has the effect of quickly terminating the feeding of mollusks and excellent particle durability. Field experiments have shown that, Feralla ® The efficacy is significant, and within three days after application, the degree of crop damage can be reduced by 90%. The Desidro exclusive to Adama ® With the support of technology, the product's attractiveness and palatability to pests are enhanced, while reducing the concentration of raw materials, which helps achieve sustainable development goals. The unique multi-stage drying process of this technology can control the humidity of the product, ensuring that the end product has excellent anti mold performance and can withstand long-term high weathering, prolonging the field efficacy.

Lier Chemical has also received positive news in overseas markets. An investor asked about the company's international sales and the impact of US tariff policies on the interactive platform. On April 21, Lier Chemical responded that in 2024, the company's international sales revenue accounted for 47%, and its products were exported to more than 30 countries and regions such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil, with exports to the United States accounting for a certain proportion. After verification, in the implementation of the "equivalent tariff" policy in the United States, the company's main raw material products are on the exemption list. However, the company continues to closely monitor the changes in tariffs on products exported to the United States, and maintains full communication and negotiation with customers to actively respond.
The chemical raw material market is at a critical juncture of transformation, with changes in production capacity, prices, and overseas markets intertwined. Enterprises need to closely monitor these developments, seize opportunities, actively respond to challenges, and seek development in the constantly changing market environment. For investors, the improvement in performance of the pesticide sector resonates with expectations of price increases. Among the 34 companies in the basic chemical industry in the first quarter, the pesticide sector has the highest expected increase. For example, Limin Group expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100-120 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025; Jiangshan Group's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.1%, and the sector valuation is still at a low level. The opportunity for valuation recovery of leading stocks is worth paying attention to.