1、 Price dynamics
ex-factory price
On September 9th, the mainstream ex factory price of 99% tebuconazole raw material in China was reported at 78000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.3% compared to September 2nd, and a slight increase for two consecutive weeks.
Market wholesale price
At the beginning of August, the transaction reference for 97% content of raw materials was 50500 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of only 500 yuan, showing an overall trend of "stable to slightly rising".
2、 Supply and demand scanning
The capacity utilization rate is as high as 99.7% -8 major factories are fully open, and the production in May increased by 43% year-on-year and 25% month on month, but inventory increased by 44% synchronously, indicating abundant supply.
Demand side 'external heat and internal stability' - high incidence of soybean rust disease in Brazil, surge in foreign trade orders; The domestic rice growing areas have turned to alternative solutions such as rice distemper, and the demand growth rate has slowed down to around 5%.
3、 Market Brief Review
The raw material intermediate α - chloroketone is still at a high level, which supports the cost; The high production and inventory levels of manufacturers limit the room for price increases. It is expected that before the release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, prices will fluctuate within the range of 50000 to 52000 yuan/ton, and there will be insufficient momentum for a significant increase.